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Post by ironwill on Nov 22, 2017 7:02:14 GMT -6
I’m concerned (well…interested) with something. If mobile mining comes from the block chain (21 billion count), and mobile mining could expand to 10 million mining devices( 0.5% of total phones) in the first 6 months… then an unsettling possibility begins to materialize. If in the first 6 months 10 million, and after the first year… 50 million (2.5 % of all mobile users), and with all of the CPU/GPU miners on the other side… won’t the 21 billion coin supply be completely eroded within about 2 years?
Let me try to break it down (numbers are hypothetical/theoretical):
First 6 months:
-Average mobile mining 1 ETN/ day (conservative estimate payout)to 1 million devices= 180,000,000
-ICO held coins= 6,000,000,000
-Computer mining = 2,000,000,000
Second 6 months of year 1:
-Average mobile mining 1 ETN/ 3days (conservative estimate payout) to 10 million devices= 600,000,000
-Computer mining = 1,250,000,000 (estimated diff increase)
Year 2:
-Average mobile mining 1 ETN/3 days (conservative extimate payout) to 50 million devices= 6,000,000,000
-Computer mining= 4,000,000,000 (mining production increase in 2nd year due to popularity increase)
TWO YEAR TOTAL: Approx. 20,000,000,000
The popularity increase to devices in two years could possibly be even more than my estimate. I would love if someone could shed light on my above calculations, as I’m just a normal person trying to wrap my head around how the block chain can possibly last 5 years or more.
Will
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Post by dra2120 on Nov 22, 2017 10:46:53 GMT -6
There are few things not correct in your thinking. First, the mobile mining on the Electroneum app is not actually mining to the blockchain. It is a simulation to introduce people to crypto mining, and it will be capped in the number of coins people can "mine" each month. The second thing is, that the coins are only released when a block is found and blocks are restricted to a certain time limit. we will say every ten minutes (I forget what the actual time is for ETN). The algorithms are constantly adjusting so that no matter how many people are mining, the blocks will only be found in that time frame. (i.e. the calculations that the computers that are mining get more complex to keep the time frame the same) this is why it is not worth it to mine BTC at this point unless you have a very powerful ASIC miner, because the calculations are so complex at this point, normal CPU/GPU mining just isn't profitable. So have no fear, there will be coins for decades to come.
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Post by BurnBaby on Nov 22, 2017 13:57:56 GMT -6
Question: 21 Billion in circulation or is there a plan to burn some coins down d road
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Post by ironwill on Nov 22, 2017 18:23:28 GMT -6
There are few things not correct in your thinking. First, the mobile mining on the Electroneum app is not actually mining to the blockchain. It is a simulation to introduce people to crypto mining, and it will be capped in the number of coins people can "mine" each month. The second thing is, that the coins are only released when a block is found and blocks are restricted to a certain time limit. we will say every ten minutes (I forget what the actual time is for ETN). The algorithms are constantly adjusting so that no matter how many people are mining, the blocks will only be found in that time frame. (i.e. the calculations that the computers that are mining get more complex to keep the time frame the same) this is why it is not worth it to mine BTC at this point unless you have a very powerful ASIC miner, because the calculations are so complex at this point, normal CPU/GPU mining just isn't profitable. So have no fear, there will be coins for decades to come. Actually you're wrong Dra. I thought like you did for the last 3 weeks. But I just realized that all mobile mining is coming from the blockchain. It's not MINING the blockchain, but the ETN rewarded comes FROM the blockchain. If it did not...if it were just a "complimentary" bonus that existed outside of the 21 billion coins... then ETN would be hacked by rabid counterfeit pros who make FAKE ETN to become rich. As far as your second point, I'm no expert on those estimations so I cannot comment  But this is the conversation we should be having. |
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Post by topbill on Nov 22, 2017 20:44:43 GMT -6
.If in the first 6 months 10 million, and after the first year… 50 million (2.5 % of all mobile users), Will I read and stopped after you quoted 50 million users. If Electroneum reached 50 million users in the first year it would have more worldwide users and wallets than all Bitcoins and Ethereum wallets and users combined. In 2016 it was estimated that there were 14 million Bitcoin wallets and 1.2 million Ethereum wallets worldwide and many people have more than one wallet so the total users would be much less than 15 million. So all I can say is to HOPE 50 million use the Phone mining app. If they did it did Electroneum would dominate the entire worldwide cryptocurrency market by leaps and bounds and would be so popular that the coins price would be astronomical just by the shear size of the user base. Also, the more miners, the higher the difficulty to mine each coin, so the coins will not run out because too many people are mining them. They will be much harder to mine. Right now a block reward is like 7,900 or so, I know because I've mined over 1,000,000 ETN's already. It's fun when you mine several 7,900 blocks to yourself all in an hour and the pools get so bogged down they are 30,000 ETN's behind in your payments. .  |
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Post by topbill on Nov 22, 2017 20:53:26 GMT -6
.If in the first 6 months 10 million, and after the first year… 50 million (2.5 % of all mobile users), Will I read and stopped after you quoted 50 million users. If Electroneum reached 50 million users in the first year it would have more worldwide users and wallets than all Bitcoins and Ethereum wallets and users combined. In 2016 it was estimated that there were 14 million Bitcoin wallets and 1.2 million Ethereum wallets worldwide and many people have more than one wallet so the total users would be much less than 15 million. So all I can say is to HOPE 50 million use the Phone mining app. If they did it did Electroneum would dominate the entire worldwide cryptocurrency market by leaps and bounds and would be so popular that the coins price would be astronomical just by the shear size of the user base. Also, the more miners, the higher the difficulty to mine each coin, so the coins will not run out because too many people are mining them. They will be much harder to mine. Right now a block reward is like 7,900 or so, I know because I've mined over 1,000,000 ETN's already. It's fun when you mine several 7,900 blocks to yourself all in an hour and the pools get so bogged down they are 30,000 ETN's behind in your payments. . I watched one of the DEV's video's and it sounded like for every coin mined on Cell phones (simulated mining). The DEV's will do real mining on the blockchain with real mining equipment to fund the simulated mined coins accounts and to keep the checks and balances correct. |
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Post by mrnewguy on Nov 23, 2017 4:36:48 GMT -6
I’m concerned (well…interested) with something. If mobile mining comes from the block chain (21 billion count), and mobile mining could expand to 10 million mining devices( 0.5% of total phones) in the first 6 months… then an unsettling possibility begins to materialize. If in the first 6 months 10 million, and after the first year… 50 million (2.5 % of all mobile users), and with all of the CPU/GPU miners on the other side… won’t the 21 billion coin supply be completely eroded within about 2 years? Let me try to break it down (numbers are hypothetical/theoretical): First 6 months: -Average mobile mining 1 ETN/ day (conservative estimate payout)to 1 million devices= 180,000,000 -ICO held coins= 6,000,000,000 -Computer mining = 2,000,000,000 Second 6 months of year 1: -Average mobile mining 1 ETN/ 3days (conservative estimate payout) to 10 million devices= 600,000,000 -Computer mining = 1,250,000,000 (estimated diff increase) Year 2: -Average mobile mining 1 ETN/3 days (conservative extimate payout) to 50 million devices= 6,000,000,000 -Computer mining= 4,000,000,000 (mining production increase in 2nd year due to popularity increase) TWO YEAR TOTAL: Approx. 20,000,000,000 The popularity increase to devices in two years could possibly be even more than my estimate. I would love if someone could shed light on my above calculations, as I’m just a normal person trying to wrap my head around how the block chain can possibly last 5 years or more. Will the more people are mining the more difficult it becomes to mine (aka you mine less coins). So, we won't see the total 21 billion in circulation before 15 years |
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Post by petesnewusername on Nov 23, 2017 4:50:18 GMT -6
.If in the first 6 months 10 million, and after the first year… 50 million (2.5 % of all mobile users), Will I read and stopped after you quoted 50 million users. If Electroneum reached 50 million users in the first year it would have more worldwide users and wallets than all Bitcoins and Ethereum wallets and users combined. In 2016 it was estimated that there were 14 million Bitcoin wallets and 1.2 million Ethereum wallets worldwide and many people have more than one wallet so the total users would be much less than 15 million. So all I can say is to HOPE 50 million use the Phone mining app. If they did it did Electroneum would dominate the entire worldwide cryptocurrency market by leaps and bounds and would be so popular that the coins price would be astronomical just by the shear size of the user base. Also, the more miners, the higher the difficulty to mine each coin, so the coins will not run out because too many people are mining them. They will be much harder to mine. Right now a block reward is like 7,900 or so, I know because I've mined over 1,000,000 ETN's already. It's fun when you mine several 7,900 blocks to yourself all in an hour and the pools get so bogged down they are 30,000 ETN's behind in your payments. In a way, we aren't comparing like with like because BTC and ETN will appeal to different markets, we are looking at the bottom up rather than top down if you like. I look at that 50 million users figure and ask myself, would 2.5% or one in forty smart phone users run an app that gives them free money? Fanciful maybe, but not impossible... |
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Post by ironwill on Nov 23, 2017 7:11:10 GMT -6
.If in the first 6 months 10 million, and after the first year… 50 million (2.5 % of all mobile users), Will I read and stopped after you quoted 50 million users. If Electroneum reached 50 million users in the first year it would have more worldwide users and wallets than all Bitcoins and Ethereum wallets and users combined. . I'm sorry that you found my estimates foolish and unbelievable. But I think you're completely wrong about the "50 million in the 2nd year" comment. 50 million users out of 7.6 billion people on earth equates to a little over half of 1%. Now if you look at this in terms of the "DEVELOPED WORLD", then 50 million is only 4%. Of all the mobile devices of 2.2 billion ... 2.2 % So, for 50 million people to be mobile mining in the 2nd year from release, approximately 98% of all mobile users would have to not mine. How can 98% NOT be a reasonable estimate? We're talking about the ability to get free money for an app and a fun mining game(soon to come after launch) all on any smartphone! Let me give you an example to prove my point. Pokemon Go was released July 6th world wide. A smart phone app to have fun and get cool digital items (pokemon). Within 33 days (just ONE MONTH), the app had 100 million users just from Google Play alone. You underestimate the power of youth Bill. I've said it in another forum, but I'll say it again. Once a few of these kids take it to school and show all the other kids, the free money he is making from mining (I'll give 2 months of time for that generously), half of all the kids in school will dowload the app and mine. I say half because there will still be redneck and preppy people who just don't care about that. And then ALL of those kids will go home and get their parents and grandparents to download the app and mine free ETN for them, since it costs those relatives absolutely nothing other than setting the app up. It's going to happen, and I believe my 50 million is a LOW NUMBER. |
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Post by petesnewusername on Nov 23, 2017 8:17:11 GMT -6
The main thing is that they have something to spend it on, younger kids won't want to, or even be allowed to open an exchange account to convert it. There has to be cool things to spend it on or they will lose interest... indirectly the coins may pay their phone bill, but if they could pay it directly it would be even better (so Richard needs to keep speaking to mobile service providers!)
Games, yes has been mentioned a lot. "Real world" items might take a bit longer, got to get retailers on board! Will the kids use it as a form of currency between themselves.... "do my homework for me and I'll send you my ETN!" LOL
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Post by avendora on Nov 24, 2017 9:30:36 GMT -6
Scarcity creates value. That is why this project will be worth $20+ not long after it launches...
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Post by dra2120 on Nov 28, 2017 8:46:41 GMT -6
I read and stopped after you quoted 50 million users. If Electroneum reached 50 million users in the first year it would have more worldwide users and wallets than all Bitcoins and Ethereum wallets and users combined. In 2016 it was estimated that there were 14 million Bitcoin wallets and 1.2 million Ethereum wallets worldwide and many people have more than one wallet so the total users would be much less than 15 million. So all I can say is to HOPE 50 million use the Phone mining app. If they did it did Electroneum would dominate the entire worldwide cryptocurrency market by leaps and bounds and would be so popular that the coins price would be astronomical just by the shear size of the user base. Also, the more miners, the higher the difficulty to mine each coin, so the coins will not run out because too many people are mining them. They will be much harder to mine. Right now a block reward is like 7,900 or so, I know because I've mined over 1,000,000 ETN's already. It's fun when you mine several 7,900 blocks to yourself all in an hour and the pools get so bogged down they are 30,000 ETN's behind in your payments. . I watched one of the DEV's video's and it sounded like for every coin mined on Cell phones (simulated mining). The DEV's will do real mining on the blockchain with real mining equipment to fund the simulated mined coins accounts and to keep the checks and balances correct. Two Questions: first what on earth are mining with to get those hash rates? Second, how do you feel about the very high likely hood of you becoming a millionaire when they unlock the system? |
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Post by petesnewusername on Nov 28, 2017 13:37:41 GMT -6
I watched one of the DEV's video's and it sounded like for every coin mined on Cell phones (simulated mining). The DEV's will do real mining on the blockchain with real mining equipment to fund the simulated mined coins accounts and to keep the checks and balances correct. Two Questions: first what on earth are mining with to get those hash rates? Second, how do you feel about the very high likely hood of you becoming a millionaire when they unlock the system? To answer the first question, I've no idea, with my complete and utter failure at mining any hash rate at all would have been good! On the second question, I'm just not factoring being mega-wealthy into the equation as far as this or any other crypto is concerned. That way lies disappointment. I hope it goes up, and I think it will go up, but equally I'm prepared to lose everything I put in and also prepared for an initial drop in price when the system is unlocked. Not unrealistic to expect a decent return, but if it moons that's a bonus. Nobody should take it for granted, but I feel some people may have been given unrealistic expectations by others seeking referral coins for themselves. Will be fascinating to see what happens when all the kids have crypto on their phones, hopefully lots of canny retailers will now be gearing up to accept payment in ETN knowing the amount of disposable income that is about to land in consumers pockets. |
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Post by topbill on Nov 29, 2017 2:10:30 GMT -6
I watched one of the DEV's video's and it sounded like for every coin mined on Cell phones (simulated mining). The DEV's will do real mining on the blockchain with real mining equipment to fund the simulated mined coins accounts and to keep the checks and balances correct. Two Questions: first what on earth are mining with to get those hash rates? Second, how do you feel about the very high likely hood of you becoming a millionaire when they unlock the system? When they unlock the wallets those billions of coins will tank the value on the exchanges. Many will try and sell at a profit and it will tank... If I held my 1,000,000+ mined coins they would drop in value substantially. I would do better converting them to BTC and buying them when they tank in price effectively ending up with 5 times the coins. I've already done this several times. I sold at 11.5 cents and bought more at 3 cents and sold again as the price climbed again. If they tank to 1 cent each I can scoop up several times the coins. Simply holding is not the answer if you know how to read and profit off the markets. |
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But this is the conversation we should be having.
