A crude prediction based on historical data + hard fork talk

[Imikocha]

This prediction is based on historical data ONLY. NOTHING else. It is just some crude calculations to give people an idea if the market continues its growth with predictable growth rates.

The Total Market Cap today is: $170 billion

The Total Market Cap was 10 months ago: $17 billion

That is 10 x in 10 months.



BTCs market cap is today $95 billion

BTCs market cap was 10 months ago: $15 billion.

That is 6,3x in 10 months.



ETHs market cap is today $29 billion.

ETHs market cap was 10 months ago: $0.7 billion.

That is 41,2x in 10 months.



There were 1 (BTC) over $1 billion market cap 1st of January 2017. Now there are 12.



The market is evolving SO FAST, that we simply do now know what is going to happen the next year or two.



If we are looking at the growth rate, you are looking at a market cap increase of $153 billion over 10 months, in which $70 billion = 45,7% of that is BTCs alone. and at $22 billion, that is 14,3%.



14,3% + 45,7% = 60% for the two major tokens.



That means 40% is for the alt coins , which amounts to $68 billion.


If the market continues to grow in 10x, and keeps the trend (unlikely) within 10 months, then we are looking at $1.7 trillion market cap = $1.700 billion.



60% of that would be BTC and ETH.



BTC = $950 billion market cap

ETH = $290 billion market cap.



The rest of the 40% would roughly be distributed to the other coins which means that there will be 62 coins with more than $1 billion market cap evaluations.
That means $680 billion for alt coins.


Lets say ETN will be in the top 10 in 1 years.



The market cap there would be $13 billion for ETN.

At around 10 billion coins in circulation (estimate from me).



Then 1 ETN = $1.3



—------



HOWEVER.



If ETN will surpass Litecoin, that only has 60k users (i think it was) with the same projections in a year:



The market cap would be between $30-55 billion

At around 10 billion coins in circulation



Then 1 ETN = $3 - $5.5



—------



Year two if the projections continue?

Then ETN = $13 or $30-55



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THEN IT WOULD REQUIRE A HARD FORK

With ETNs 2 digit system the lowest price of ETN will be whatever 0.01 ETN is worth. Let's say that ETN hits $1. Then 0.01 ETN would be worth $0.01



If ETN hits $10, then the lowest amount you could send (0.01 ETN) would be worth $0.10.
That means if the price goes to the high digit prices (i.e $80) a hard fork would be needed.


ETN = $1 then 0.01 ETN = $0.01

ETN = $10 then 0.01 ETN = $0.10

ETN = $80 then 0.01 ETN = $0.80



Then they would have to change the code to theoretically make a new coin to help Electroneum with lower transactions, like Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold = hard fork.



That means people who would be hodl'ing their coins at THAT TIME would, theoretically, receive FREE new coins, if a split is made.

[mrnewguy]

Today is the day bitcoin gold is forked from bitcoin
Let's see if forks always do good to the market.

Anyway, I really hope your are right but I think that this strong growth is mainly due to the bitcoingold fork, that brought a lot of ppl to buy more bitcoin to receive the bitcoingold coins during the fork, pushing btc price up and the whole market up. All coins and btc in particular could crash in the next 2 weeks after the bitcoin gold fork is finished. We will see.

Still, only 0,01% of world population use cryptocurrency, so we have a lot of space to grow in

[satoshisbrotherricky]

I thought the point of having an organized community was to avoid hard forks?

[reddarichest]

PREDICTING ELECTRONEUM PRICES FROM THE COMPETITOR'S PRICE PERSPECTIVE

Hello all!
We can not wait to see how ETN price movements will be after ETN is officially traded on the market after the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) period ends on October 31, 2017. Whether the ETN price will skyrocket as Bitconnect (BCC) or RegalCoin (REC)? Let's review ETN price predictions when compared to other cryptocurrencies that have already been traded in worldwide markets.

We must first remember that the PRICE of a crypto currency depends on two factors, first depending on the total capitalization of the crypto currency market, and secondly to the total circulation or supply of the cryptocurrency in the market. Equation formula is: TOTAL MARKET CAPITALIZATION divided by TOTAL SUPPLY equal to PRICE. The pricing data, market capitalization and total supply of a cryptocurrency can be found at coinmarketcap.com.

We see now that crypto currency data ranked as the 3rd largest in terms of market capitalization is BITCOIN (BTC) with total market capitalization of 94 billion USD, ETHEREUM (ETH) with total market capitalization of 30 billion USD, and last RIPPLE (XRP ) with a total market capitalization of 8.2 billion USD.

In terms of prices, currently Bitcoin is trading at the price of 5645 USD per coin, Ethereum is worth 314 USD per coin, and last Ripple transacted at the price of 0.21 USD per coin.

Now we apply the total capitalization of each cryptocurrency above into the ELECTRONEUM, with the assumptions that Electroneum DEVELOPER TEAM make the big efforts of modern marketing in the era of advancement of the Internet today so that it can create MILESTONE of Electroneum that can grab the attention and usage of the 2 billion target ETN currency users around the world. And we assume later after the ICO ends, followed 3-5 years later, the total supply of ETN currency is 6 billion coins.

FIRST: ELECTRONEUM ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE CAPITALIZATION OF THE MARKETS RIPPLE WHICH ARE 8.2 BILLIONS USD
With a capitalization of 8.2 billion USD and with a total ETN coin supply of 6 billion coins, the price of 1 ETN coin will be 1.37 USD. When will this price be achieved? Ripple was launched in 2011 and it took 6 years to reach a price per coin of 0.21 USD. However ETN will not take 6 years to reach the price of 1.37 USD. ETN price of 1.37 USD, in my opinion will be reached within 12 months.

SECOND: ELECTRONEUM ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE CAPITALIZATION OF THE ETHEREUM MARKETS WHICH ARE 30 BILLIONS USD
With a market capitalization of 30 billion USD and with a total ETN coin supply of 6 billion coins, the price of 1 ETN coin will be 5 USD. When will this price be achieved? Compared to Ethereum that can reach market capitalization of 30 billion USD in 2 years, then for ETN I think will not be much different. ETN will reach a price of 5 USD per coin within a maximum of 24 months (2019).

THIRD: ELECTRONEUM ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE CAPITALIZATION OF THE MARKET BITCOINS WHICH ARE 94 BILLIONS USD
With a market capitalization of 94 billion USD and with a total ETN coin supply of 6 billion coins, the price of 1 ETN coin would be 15.7 USD. When will this price be achieved? Compared with Bitcoin which can reach market capitalization of 94 billion USD within 8 years, then for ETN I think will be achieved faster. ETN will reach a price of 15.7 USD per coin in a maximum of 5 years into the future (2022).

However, the three scenarios above are scenarios that have the basic assumptions of ceteris paribus. If the Electroneum management is capable of making tremendous marketing efforts then the ETN price increase per coin will be faster than assumed above.

We as INVESTOR do expect big profits in a relatively short time. But do not forget also that the Electroneum Developer Team, by design, deliberately created a relatively large ETN supply of up to 21 billion coins in order to make ETN prices cheaper and affordable to a number of around 1 to 5 USD per coin, the ETN currency will be a cryptocurrency of equal value or no more expensive than the US Dollar.

ETN is designed to use only 2 decimal digits behind the comma so that ETN users do not feel complicated when using it to buy pizza or hamburger for example, where later in the future after ETN is accepted worldwide, we just spend 1 or 2 ETN to buy a glass of capuccino latte or to buy fuel at gas stations around the world.

It seems to me, the ideal goal of the founders of Electroneum, is to make ETN a means to play games and gambling by targeting smartphone users as much as 2.2 billion worldwide. And create a simple ETN mining experience through HP Android version 4.4. However, it is possible that the real aim of the founders of Electroneum, as a matter of facts, is to make crypto Electroneum as a SUBSTITUTE or alternate usage of US Dollars around the world!

[Pete]

Oct 24, 2017 22:48:59 GMT -6 mrnewguy said:

Today is the day bitcoin gold is forked from bitcoin
Let's see if forks always do good to the market.

Anyway, I really hope your are right but I think that this strong growth is mainly due to the bitcoingold fork, that brought a lot of ppl to buy more bitcoin to receive the bitcoingold coins during the fork, pushing btc price up and the whole market up. All coins and btc in particular could crash in the next 2 weeks after the bitcoin gold fork is finished. We will see.

Still, only 0,01% of world population use cryptocurrency, so we have a lot of space to grow in

It pushed everything else down, nearly every altcoin has been hammered, even the good ones, only in the last couple of days have they started to recover. If this kind of external event affects ETN price in future I wonder what people will make of it who aren't used to wild swings.

[Imikocha]

Oct 24, 2017 23:01:36 GMT -6 satoshisbrotherricky said:

I thought the point of having an organized community was to avoid hard forks?

The point is that the organized community makes it easier to combat difficulties later on.